As talk of interest rises increases, a national “Australian mortgage and rental affordability survey” has predicted dire consequences for the economy, finding that the majority of Australian borrowers and renters could not meet a mortgage or rent increase equivalent to a rate rise of only one per cent.
The survey was commissioned by Australia’s peak finance and mortgage broker body, the Finance Brokers Association of Australia (FBAA), and conducted by respected research firm McCrindle.
Understandably when asked if rising interest rates would put pressure on their financial position, 66 per cent agreed either strongly, somewhat or slightly.
However when asked more specific questions, the responses stunned the FBAA’s managing director Peter White AM, a 40 plus year industry veteran, who said Australians had possibly grown complacent after almost 11 years without seeing a rate rise.
“Many Australians are clearly on the brink and are sleepwalking into disaster, living in the false hope that rates will stay this low.
“This survey is a wake up call and shows that even a small rise in rates – which is looking more likely next year with rising inflation – could be catastrophic for our nation,” he said.
He was referring not only to the 56 per cent of people who agreed (strongly, somewhat or slightly) that “If interest rates were to rise I would need to look at refinancing my home”, but to the response when people were asked how likely they were to be able to meet a monthly increase in their rent or mortgage of $300.
“Shockingly 57 per cent of people paying a mortgage or rent answered ‘not at all’, and we are talking about an increase equivalent to only one per cent based on the average home loan.
“One per cent is not a large increase. It will happen and with the RBA recently deciding not to intervene to stop increasing yields on three-year government bonds, it will likely happen soon.
“My message to Australians is that we must be better prepared.”
He said borrowers have rightly taken full advantage of historically low rates combined with schemes that allow for low deposits, but issued a chilling warning.
“The housing market has soared and there is a reasonable chance will undergo a correction, meaning that those with low deposits who have stretched themselves to make large repayments could see themselves with negative equity, owing more than the value of the property.
“Add a mortgage increase they can’t pay, and there could be a lot of people in real trouble.”
Mr White pointed out that those who said they couldn’t meet a $300 per month repayment included 46 per cent with a combined gross weekly income between $2000 and $3000, showing that the problem is not limited to very low income earners.
“However there are sections of our community who are more vulnerable and this includes those who rent, remembering that any rate rise a landlord incurs will be passed on to the renter.”
Survey respondents who said they “could not meet at all” a $300 per month rise, include 80 per cent of those in single parent families, 76 per cent with a combined gross weekly income of $700 to $1200, 71 per cent living in remote areas, and 70 per cent of baby boomers.
“Where do these people go if they have to walk away from their home? Public housing, the street?” he asked.
“The options for lower income earners are slim and this will reverberate throughout our society, most likely on the back of the COVID economic struggles.”
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Peter White AM answers key questions
How likely is it that interest rates will rise?
PW: Based on the history of interest rates we are in a very unique situation of prolonged very low rates, so the only way is up. The housing market is over-heating and the banks, regulators and government are already talking about lifting the floor rate (a higher rate used to calculate repayments) to slow borrowing. This along with rises in fixed rates points to rising interest rates. Inflation is also going up and tipped to increase further. Rising inflation in New Zealand has just seen a rate rise there, and other nations including the UK and USA have raised rates or are talking about it. Australia is not exempt to international trends.
What should Australians be doing to prepare?
PW: We don’t need to over-react but we do need to take an honest, balanced and informed approach. I’d say to borrowers, don’t over-commit yourself, and don’t go deep into payday loans, personal loans or credit cards because rates will rise. Borrowers and renters need to have surplus funds to pay an increased amount.
If rates rise, can’t borrowers refinance or shop around for a better rate?
PW: They should be able to but there is a significant danger. The Government must ensure banks don’t overstep the mark in lifting floor rates as this adds to the problem, and we’ve seen this in the past. If banks assess new loans at say six per cent, even if the prevail rate is two per cent, this can create a group of people we term ‘mortgage captives’. They can service a loan at say 4 per cent which is still higher than they are paying, but may not be able to show servicing at six per cent which the bank is using as their benchmark. When rates rise they are prevented from refinancing because they are being assessed at a rate far higher than is needed. The borrower has the means to service the loan but because they are being assessed at a higher rate, the borrower is forced to stay and pay more. They are in effect captives to a higher mortgage. This survey shows that this could lead to disaster, as we know that many borrowers will be stressed at only a one per cent rise.
Key findings and facts of the Australian mortgage and rental affordability survey
- 75% believe that rising interest rates would put pressure on their financial position
- 56% say that if interest rates were to rise, they would need to look at refinancing
- $571,992 is the average Australian home loan (written July 2021 – finder.com.au)
- $300 is the approx. monthly increase in repayments on the average home loan if interest rates were to rise by 1%
- How likely are Australians to be able to meet a monthly increase in rent or mortgage by $300 (approx. 1%)?
- Only 9% say they are extremely likely to meet this increase
- “Not at all” say…
- 46% with combined gross household income of $2000-$3000
- 76% with combined gross household income of $700-$1200
- 85% with combined gross household income less than $700
- 71% living in remote area
- 40% of people with bachelor or postgraduate degrees
- 80% of single parent families
Survey methodology:
This survey is nationally representative of Australians by age, state and gender and was in field from the 20th – 25th of August 2021, yielding 1,004 completed responses. Several segmentation filters have been applied to understand the results further. Survey conducted by McCrindle research.